Sugar

Sugar (SUGAR/USD) tracks the price of raw sugar as quoted in US dollars per pound, benchmarked primarily against the ICE Raw Sugar No. 11 futures contract. It is one of the world's most actively traded soft commodity markets, used by food producers, refiners, and speculative traders to gain exposure to global sugar supply and demand dynamics.

Key takeaways

• ICE Raw Sugar No. 11 settled at 13.92 US cents per pound on June 10, 2026.
• The benchmark contract trades on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York.
• Brazil and India are the two largest producers driving global supply fundamentals.
• Ethanol parity and energy market movements are key external price influences.
• The forward curve was in contango as of June 2026, signaling near-term supply comfort.

Overview

Sugar (SUGAR/USD) is a soft commodity instrument that represents the price of raw cane sugar denominated in US dollars per pound, with the ICE Raw Sugar No. 11 futures contract serving as the global benchmark. The No. 11 contract has traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York for decades and remains the world's primary reference price for internationally traded raw sugar. Sugar is a physically produced agricultural commodity grown predominantly in tropical and subtropical regions, with Brazil and India consistently ranking as the largest producers and exporters. The commodity is harvested on a seasonal cycle, meaning supply volumes fluctuate with planting decisions, weather patterns, and government policy in key producing nations. Primary market participants include sugar millers, food and beverage manufacturers, commodity trading houses, and institutional investors who use futures and CFDs to hedge price exposure or take directional positions. Retail traders access sugar price movements through CFD platforms, futures brokers, and exchange-traded products, typically quoted in US cents per pound. Trading in ICE No. 11 futures runs Sunday through Friday during standard exchange hours, with the most liquid sessions coinciding with US and European market hours. Compared to other soft commodities, sugar differs from coffee (ICE Coffee C contract, quoted in US cents per pound) and cocoa (ICE Cocoa, quoted in US dollars per metric ton) in that its price is heavily influenced by the dual-use nature of sugarcane, which can be diverted to ethanol production. This energy linkage gives sugar a correlation to crude oil markets that coffee and cocoa do not share. Sugar is also notable for its sensitivity to Indian government export policy and Brazilian Real currency movements, traits that distinguish it within the soft commodities complex.

Why it matters

Raw sugar is a foundational input for the global food and beverage industry, making SUGAR/USD price movements relevant to a broad range of corporate hedgers and speculative traders. The ICE No. 11 contract sees average daily open interest in the hundreds of thousands of contracts, reflecting deep institutional participation. Sugar prices can exhibit annualized volatility exceeding 30%, offering meaningful trading opportunities relative to lower-volatility asset classes. Retail traders use sugar CFDs and futures to diversify commodity exposure beyond energy and metals.

Key price drivers

Sugar prices are most directly influenced by Brazilian sugarcane crush data and the ethanol-versus-sugar diversion ratio, since Brazilian mills can shift output between the two products based on relative prices. Indian government export quota decisions and domestic price support policies represent a second major driver, given India's status as the world's largest sugar consumer and a significant exporter. Weather events such as El Nino-related droughts in key growing regions, along with the EIA weekly ethanol production report and crude oil price trends, also move the market. Speculative positioning by managed money funds, tracked via the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, can amplify short-term price swings.

Current trends

ICE Raw Sugar No. 11 traded at 13.91 US cents per pound on June 10, 2026, a decline of 1.20% on the day, with the July 2026 contract settling at 13.92 US cents per pound. Market sentiment was described as mixed and range-bound, with ample supply limiting upside and speculative short positioning adding downward pressure into the close. Indian demand was characterized as slow, and the forward curve remained in contango. The one-month move for sugar CFD instruments was approximately negative 4.18% as of mid-June 2026.

Forecast outlook

Near-term technical focus is on whether the July 2026 contract can hold above the 13.86 US cents per pound chart support level identified by CZ App analysts following the break of the prior low at 13.97. A sustained close below 13.86 would open the door to further downside, while a recovery above 13.97 would be needed to shift the short-term bias. Analysts noted that ample supply and slow Indian demand are likely to keep the market in a narrow range, with weather risk and energy market shifts representing the primary catalysts for any breakout.

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